Observations and Surmisals
2014 ERRATA SHEET
Smoke Screen Tent for a Generation"My son's curriculum is becoming increasingly reliant on Chrome books and the Internet; its content is, Mine craft-like, becoming more of a split screen, in which kids have their own section in the same world, i.e., individualized, but with the same hierarchy of learning goals."
Errata: I now think that Chrome Books or similar equipment is a valuable learning tool. Josh's school is able to provide enough computers for every student in fourth grade. They can work on their own at their own level, at their own pace. They do this in conjunction with group learning and pencil-based work; in other words, the kids aren't using the computers for more than a fraction of the class time. The computers are not used (in the way that video games are sometimes used at home) to babysit the kids. They're just a terrific tool, and I'm all for them.
Things Could Be Worse, or, We Could Have Kittens"It's hard for a mom to wish that on her child, bad teachers. But maybe next year's teacher could be just a little tiny bit worse. (Not very much worse--it's hard enough to get Josh to school consistently five to ten minutes late every morning.)"
Errata: I don't actually regret that Josh's fourth grade teachers are incredible. I was planning to write an entire post about them, but there was a major story on it in this week's Oregon Observer. They are doing an amazing job of recognizing and attending to the different learning styles of every "learner." They have my unqualified respect and admiration.
Be Wary of Wishes that Make Everyone QueasyErrata: Don't be wary of wishes that make everyone queasy. Do what you gotta do.
What's Interesting About This?
Errata: My take-away message from Steve Jobs (which is lost here) is Think different. Question, and be prepared to reject, the limits that society thrusts upon you.
Getting Right to the Point.Errata:
- I stand by this, generally. However, when managing $20k or less, be aware that it is more difficult to achieve the same level of diversity that you can get with larger amounts of money. Or, if you do have diversity, then you may have relatively smaller returns (and potentially higher risk).
- The answer to this problem is to do more homework before investing. The best thing you can do is to buy two or three really solid companies when their stock is VERY low. This may take time. Early to mid-Feb. is an excellent time to find bargains. The entire buying season is behind you and spring is still a ways off; consumer activity is practically at a standstill. Buy Ethan Allen or Whirlpool or Home Depot in advance of the real estate season (which begins in March). Buy Target and Best Buy when they are friendless; they'll recover and thank you for it. Buy Whole Foods in advance of the season of eating: Thanksgiving and the other food holidays. Buy automobile makers when no one is buying cars. And so forth.
- Another good strategy is to buy companies with great future growth potential. FB. (Twitter.) Tesla. DDD. Nuance. Activision. Who will be making robots? Who is designing the best game technology? Many of these companies are still affordable stocks, not like Apple, Google, Amazon, Ebay, and Netflix.
- At less volatile times when the economy is trending slowly upward, you will want to hold on to your best stocks longer. During uncertain times of increased volatility, sell when you see double digit profits (10 percent, give or take). Be sure to consider the individual stock's trends. Will that bird in the hand lay a golden egg, or fly the coop? In a volatile market, it will probably fly. In a stable market, it will probably lay an egg.
- The win-win strategy is solid. In an upwardly trending market, you still should have some cash on hand to make an opportunity out of a sudden downturn. In a generally upward-trending market, you may want to keep 10-15% cash on hand. In a highly volatile market, keep 30 - 50% cash on hand.
- Here is a way to free up cash besides selling your best-performing stocks. In your portfolio, look at your stocks that are not doing well, particularly those stocks that have not been doing well for some time. Click on the little + icon (assuming you use Fidelity, if use something else, there would be another way to do this) in front of the stock name to see when you bought that stock. If you've been following my advice, you bought that stock in increments over time. If the stock hasn't been doing well, then chances are you bought too high. Compare what you paid for the stock in the first and second purchases to what the stock is currently worth. You'll probably conclude that it will take a very long time for the stock to come back up to your original purchase price. That would be correct. So, sell the number of shares that you purchased at the higher price(s). This won't affect your bottom line; remember, your bottom line is the current value of your portfolio. So, you can look at this as a lateral move. If you go through your portfolio, you'll find plenty of opportunities to sell increments of stock that you bought to high. This is also a good risk-avoidance practice, because those high-priced stock purchases are a liability--if for no other reason than they are tying up your cash and failing to make any money in a reasonable amount of time.
- The best time to do this is on a Friday, or any day when the market is up or flat--but Fridays are best, because chances are good that the market will be somewhat lower on Monday. (Remember, as a general rule, buy early in the week and sell late in the week.)
- You can free up a lot of cash and make your portfolio less vulnerable to market downturns by doing this. It might feel like you're taking a loss, but it's smarter than selling the goose that's laying the golden egg, or letting that cash stagnate.
- This is yet another way to benefit from admitting our mistakes and moving on!